In the heart of New York City, the buzz of early voting has noticeably quieted this year. As of the first four days of early voting in June 2026, the city has witnessed a more than 50% drop in turnout compared to the same period in June 2026. This shift is particularly striking given the competitive nature of several congressional and state legislative primary contests, including three federal races where Mayor Zohran Mamdani has made significant endorsements.
The decline in early voting could signal a waning of the enthusiasm that propelled Mayor Mamdani to victory in his own election. This year, the voter demographic has noticeably skewed older, with Manhattan voters turning out at nearly double the rate of Brooklyn voters, despite Brooklyn hosting two of the most closely watched congressional primary contests.
Analyzing the Decline in Voter Turnout
According to an analysis by Gothamist of voter data from the Board of Elections, more than 62,000 voters have checked in at early voting sites citywide after the first four days of early voting. This is a stark contrast to the 131,882 voters who had shown up by this same point last year. The drop is most pronounced among millennial and Gen Z voters, particularly in the 7th Congressional District, which stretches from North Brooklyn to Astoria. Here, turnout among voters aged 18 to 24 is down 65% compared to this time last year.
Evan Roth Smith, a founding partner and pollster at Slingshot Strategies, attributes last year’s high turnout to the unique appeal of Mayor Mamdani. “It’s a good reminder of what last year was like in New York City politics with Zohran Mamdani on the ballot,” Smith remarked. “Last year’s high turnout was driven not just by Mamdani’s politics, but the person of Zohran Mamdani, and he’s not on the ballot this year.”
The Impact of Mayor Mamdani’s Endorsements
Mayor Mamdani has endorsed a slate of progressive candidates in congressional primaries, including Claire Valdez in the 7th Congressional District, Darializa Avila Chevalier in the 13th Congressional District, and Brad Lander in the 10th Congressional District. However, the lower turnout numbers suggest that Mamdani’s influence may not be sufficient to galvanize voters in the absence of his own candidacy.
In the 13th Congressional District, where Mamdani endorsed Darializa Avila Chevalier over incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat, more than 7,500 people have turned out through day four, which is 65% of the early voting turnout compared to last year. The highest turnout within this district is in the 70th Assembly District covering Central Harlem, where Assemblymember Jordan Wright is facing a challenge from Conrad Blackburn, a democratic socialist endorsed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
The 10th Congressional District is leading in turnout among the races where Mamdani made a congressional endorsement. Rep. Dan Goldman is running for his third term against former city comptroller Brad Lander. Close to 10,000 people have turned out in the 10th Congressional District, which is about half the turnout at this point last year in the district. The highest turnout within the 10th Congressional District is in the 52nd Assembly District in Downtown Brooklyn and Brooklyn Heights, which routinely has the highest turnout in the city.
The Broader Implications of Lower Turnout
The lower turnout numbers are starkest in the 7th Congressional District, where Mamdani backed Assemblymember Claire Valdez to fill Rep. Nydia Velazquez’s seat. So far, more than 5,600 voters have turned out through day four of early voting, which is about 40% of what it was at this point in last year’s primary. The district has also seen a striking drop in younger voters, with only 350 18- to 24-year-olds having cast ballots compared to more than 1,000 voters in this age group who had voted last year.
Adam Carlson, a Democratic pollster and founder of Zenith Research, suggests that the demographic makeup of the areas with the highest turnout can provide insights into which groups are most engaged. “We can use that as a proxy for which demographic groups are turning out at the highest rates by race, by age, just knowing what we know about these districts,” Carlson noted. The highest turnout in the 7th Congressional District as of day four is in the 50th Assembly District covering Greenpoint and Williamsburg in Brooklyn, an area with a larger number of younger, white voters.
As the early voting period continues, all eyes are on whether the final weekend will see a surge in turnout. Unlike the first weekend, there won’t be an NBA Championship series to distract voters. The Knicks parade down the Canyon of Heroes in Manhattan to celebrate their NBA championship title on Thursday, the first 300 early voters at every poll site citywide can score a basketball-themed “I Voted” sticker.
