The National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for the New York City metropolitan area, including northeast New Jersey and southern Westchester, from 10 a.m. Saturday until 2 a.m. Sunday. Residents should prepare for potentially hazardous conditions including heavy rainfall, strong winds, and the possibility of an isolated tornado.

The forecast predicts multiple rounds of thunderstorms throughout the day, with the most intense activity expected from late morning into the evening. While average rainfall is anticipated to be around 1 to 1.5 inches, some areas could receive up to 4 inches, leading to significant localized flooding.

Flash flooding concerns for urban and low-lying areas

The primary concern for this weather event is flash flooding particularly in urban areas with poor drainage and low-lying regions. Rainfall rates could reach 1.5 to 2 inches per hour, with up to 3 inches possible in a three-hour period. This could result in transportation disruptions basement flooding, and the need for water rescues.

The highest risk for flash flooding is across northeast New Jersey, the NYC metro area, and southern Westchester. Residents in these areas should be particularly vigilant and ready to act quickly if conditions worsen.

Damaging winds and potential tornadoes

In addition to the flooding threat, damaging wind gusts are expected, with speeds potentially reaching 60 to 70 mph or higher. These winds could damage trees and power lines leading to power outages. The highest risk for damaging winds is across northeast New Jersey, the NYC metro area, and the Lower Hudson Valley.

There is also a low but non-zero chance of an isolated tornado, with the highest risk across northeast New Jersey into the NYC metro area. While the probability is low, residents should still be aware of this possibility and know what to do if a tornado warning is issued.

Additional hazards: smoke and rip currents

Aside from the storms, other hazards are expected in the region. Smoke is anticipated to continue affecting the area through Saturday afternoon, which could exacerbate respiratory issues for some individuals. Additionally, dangerous rip currents are expected at ocean beaches through Saturday evening.

Anyone planning to visit the beach should exercise caution. It is advised to avoid swimming near jetties, piers, and rocks, and to only swim where lifeguards are on duty. Rip currents can quickly pull swimmers away from shore, even in seemingly calm waters.

Preparing for the storms

Residents in flood-prone areas should be ready for quickly changing conditions on Saturday. It is crucial not to drive through flooded roads, as water may be deeper than it appears, and vehicles can stall or be swept away. Before the storms arrive, secure loose outdoor items, keep phones charged, and have a way to receive weather alerts.

If a severe thunderstorm warning or tornado warning is issued, move indoors, stay away from windows, and go to the lowest level of the building if possible. Being prepared and knowing what to do can significantly reduce the risks associated with severe weather.